In reply to David Moerbe.

Yes, those details (at least most of what you mention) are in the full report presented to Synod leaders (about 50 pages). The birth rate in 2010 is 1/4 of what it was in 1950. Dr. MacPherson focused on "hard facts" - once you have that you can run any number of scenarios in the spreadsheet (what if our birth rate decline was only half what it actually was, and retained 30% more before confirmation than we actually do, etc., etc.).

Rev. Heath Curtis
Coordinator for Stewardship, LCMS